Monday, September 21, 2009

The Demographic Transition

The demographic transition is a four-stage conceptualization that tracks the changes in birthrates and death rates through time as a population urbanizes. In the transition model stage 1 is characterized by both high birthrates and death rates, which is leading to a slow rate of natural increases. in stage 2 death rates fall drastically while the birthrates remain high. Which means that there is a rapid raise in the RNI. In stage 3 people become aware of the advantages of smaller families in an urban and an industrial setting. In stage 4 a low RNI results from a combination of low birthrates and extremely low death rates. This is a good model to predict where and when we can predict population growth.

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